Carving up the Ivory

The Ivory Coast has become known for two things, being the world’s biggest exporter of cocoa and its political instability. The Ivory Coast is a nation split in two that is in danger of an invasion and outbreak of civil war. The Situation in the IC is most recently from the disputed election that was held in November. The election originally saw Ouattara the former Prime Minister and Muslim opposition leader elected with a 54% majority which was supervised by the Electoral Commission and the UN. The current President Gbagbo, came in second with 46%.

The Ivory Coast has been divided for nearly a decade, in 2000 a Popular uprising usurped a coup and elected Gbagbo as the President. The previous tension between the North and South of the country had lead to strong xenophobia. The North has had a stronger Muslim presence and has been accused of being ‘not Ivorian’. This came to a head in 2002 when a troop mutiny escalated into Rebellion. This was then stopped by French troops and over the last eight years several Peace Treaties and ten thousand UN troops later and we yet again have a relatively stable government. Fast-forward to the present day and Ouattara the opposition leader is from the Muslim North and Gbagbo is from the West and fighting on ethnic lines. The North to this day is still held by ‘the new forces’ the rebel forces that dominate the North, however they were embraced in the election, its this control that lead to controversy. Gbagbo leaned on his allies in the Constitutional Court and accused the North of being unjust and corrupt in the elections and the Court struck down seven of the Northern regions, swinging the victory to Gbagbo with 51%

The way that things are going is an amazing example of international politics, the dichotomy of domestic and foreign policy has been essentially busted as the situation in the Ivory Coast escalates. The domestic election was at first moderated by the international body of the UN, and now as things escalate and Gbagbo refuses to step down the international community is becoming increasingly more involved. In a very swift movement Ouattara was able to get the international community to recognise his victory over that of Gbagbo, this may have been easy as most western states and other countries will not go against the judgment of the UN peacekeepers and Election officials. Ouattara for his behalf has fortified a Gold hotel in the biggest city and is currently under the protection on 800 UN soldiers. Ouattara has been able to already, in less than a month have several nations expel diplomats under Gbagbo and instead recognise ones appointed by Ouattara. The World Bank followed suit by recognising his victory and cut off loans to what they claim as Gbagbo’s illegitimate regime, this has been followed by the Central African Bank and banks in neighbouring nations, the head of the Ivory Coast Bank is also under pressure to cut off funds to Gbagbo. They hope that by doing this they will be able to starve out his regime, as he would be unable to pay for the armed forces and the civil service.

Most of the world now has recognised Ouattara over Gbagbo including the African Union and the partnership of West African States, the leaders of whom visited Gbagbo recently in order to encourage him to back down with dignity. This carrot method failed to work as the man reiterated his lack of desire to do so. That leaves in turn the stick, The West African group has on other occasions launched a military intervention into states in order to ensure security. The West African forces, for example, are in Somalia, Darfur and Sierra Leone. The African Union has also set aside a Brigade to aid in the operation. The UN also has a ten thousand strong force that will also ‘fire if fired upon’ however have no official mandate to enforce the election results.

Things are coming down to the wire in the Ivory Coast, if the ECOWAS the West African union of states decide to use the military intervention option it will be taken to the African Union for approval and support, which is expected to happen swiftly, it may, also be taken to the UN as they have a large presence in the nation. As the UN has already declared its support of Ouattara it is doubtful they would not support an intervention. The Ivory Coast has had a domestic election that has engulfed the political scene of the African Continent and brought in the entire world via the UN. If you don’t believe me, within six months the price of chocolate is projected to increase above the rate of inflation, your mars bar, just got a little pricier because of Gbagbo…